A year after showing openness to normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia has taken a firmer stance, making any diplomatic engagement conditional on the establishment of a Palestinian state and a halt to the violence in Gaza. 

Crown Prince and de facto leader Mohamed bin Salman emphasized that the kingdom will not establish ties with Israel as long as the Palestinian cause is not respected, condemning the attacks by Israeli forces in the besieged territory. 

In 2023, the Saudi monarchy had held negotiations with the United States to formalize relations with Israel, but these talks were suspended after the outbreak of conflict in the Gaza Strip.

Rabha Saif Allam, a researcher at the Cairo Center for Strategic Studies, explained that “the escalation of violence and the atrocities committed against Palestinians made it impossible for Saudi public opinion to accept normalization with Israel.” 

Tensions remain

Saudi Arabia’s tougher stance comes amid growing regional tensions, including attacks attributed to Israel on Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising the risk of a conflict on the northern border.

The Gaza war, which began on October 7, 2023, with a Hamas attack on Israel, has left 1,205 Israelis and 41,272 Palestinians dead, according to official figures and international agencies. As ceasefire negotiations mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt remain stalled, bin Salman is seeking to pressure both Israel and Washington to prevent an escalation involving Iran and its allies.

Anna Jacobs, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, said a wider conflict would be “disastrous for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which could get caught in the crossfire.” 

The Saudi kingdom, guardian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, has never recognized Israel nor participated in the Abraham Accords of 2020, which connected Bahrain, the UAE, and Morocco with Tel Aviv. 

In September 2023, bin Salman had expressed willingness to reach a deal conditional on protecting the Palestinian cause, but Israel’s refusal to accept a Palestinian state has kept normalization stalled. 

With this stance, Saudi Arabia reasserts its regional influence, seeking a balance between its relations with the United States and defending the Palestinian population, while aiming to prevent the Gaza conflict from escalating into a wider war in the Middle East.