Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set to face off in the 2024 presidential election on November 5, with the latest polls showing an extremely tight race.

According to an October survey by The New York Times/Siena College, both candidates are essentially tied at 48% support each. Earlier in October, Harris had a slight edge, leading 49% to 46% over Trump. 

The U.S. electoral system is indirect, meaning voters cast ballots for electors in the Electoral College, who then choose the president. This system means national polling reflects general support but doesn’t always predict the final outcome. Winning requires at least 270 electoral votes, making battleground states crucial. 

An exclusive CNN poll also shows Harris and Trump tied at 47% each. While Harris dipped slightly from September numbers, results remain within the margin of error.

CNN reports that among voters confident in their choice, 50% back Harris, 49% support Trump, and just 1% favor other candidates. Undecided voters tend to lean toward Trump, making them a pivotal factor. Additionally, Harris may already hold a slight advantage in total votes due to higher early and mail-in voting among Democrats. 

There’s a 60% chance the winner will secure more than 300 electoral votes, which would result in a decisive victory rather than a tie. Depending on how key battleground states fall, Harris could reach 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, or Trump could achieve 312 to Harris’s 226. 

The numbers for each candidate

In United States elections, each state assigns electors based on congressional representation. In 48 states and Washington D.C., the candidate with the most votes takes all of the state’s electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska allocate theirs proportionally. This system emphasizes the importance of the Electoral College over the national popular vote. 

The final electoral count is certified in Congress on January 6, 2025. If no candidate reaches 270 votes, the House of Representatives breaks the tie. The winner will be inaugurated as president on January 20, 2025. 

As Election Day approaches, the battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains incredibly tight, highlighting the high stakes and the critical role every vote plays in shaping the political future of the United States.