Tuesday’s election in New York could redefine the relationship between the nation’s largest city and the White House.

President Trump has threatened to withdraw federal funding if left-wing Democrat Zohran Mamdani wins, as polls predict, running on a progressive platform that includes rent freezes and higher taxes for the wealthy. 

On his social media platform, the president wrote: “If the communist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the election for mayor of New York City, it is very unlikely that I will contribute any federal funds, except the minimum required, to my beloved first home.” 

According to polling firm AtlasIntel, Mamdani leads with 41%, followed by former governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, with 34%. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels anti-crime patrol, trails with 24%. Analysts say tactical voting could be decisive. 

Alongside New York, elections will also take place in Virginia and New Jersey, which AFP describes as bellwethers of approval or disapproval for Trump’s administration, and potential indicators ahead of next year’s midterms. 

Polling stations will open at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. Early voting has already surpassed 735,000 ballots—a historic record signaling strong turnout.

In 2021, a total of 1.14 million votes were cast, electing current mayor Eric Adams, who later withdrew from reelection amid corruption scandals. Adams, a former police officer with Republican ties, has endorsed Cuomo. 

Mamdani’s campaign and Trump’s threats

In the campaign’s final stretch, Mamdani toured nightclubs over Halloween weekend and marched across the Brooklyn Bridge at dawn under the slogan “Our Time Is Now.” His progressive message and Muslim identity have made him a symbol of renewal—but also a target for conservative criticism. 

Trump’s threats to withhold funding have become a central issue, forcing candidates to address whether they can effectively negotiate with the president and protect the city from potential retaliation. 

Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told AFP that a Mamdani victory “would set the stage for a direct confrontation” with Trump. “The president will treat New York more aggressively,” he warned, predicting “a long and bitter political clash.” 

Mamdani’s rise has also deepened divisions within the Democratic Party, torn between a centrist and a populist left-wing direction.

Speaking at a senior center event, Mamdani said: “This has to be a party where Americans can see themselves reflected—not just a reflection of a few people who have been in politics for too long.” 

The outcome of New York’s election will not only determine the city’s future leadership but also serve as a measure of the nation’s political temperature amid deep polarization.