With support from UNSAM and the Buenos Aires government, a Artificial Intelligence model aims to predict dengue outbreaks in Argentina.
The National University of San Martín (UNSAM) is developing an innovative Bayesian Artificial Intelligence model designed to anticipate dengue outbreaks in urban areas of Argentina.
The initiative, carried out in collaboration with the Buenos Aires provincial government, seeks to reinforce preventive health policies.
Governor Axel Kicillof and Health Minister Nicolás Kreplak announced on September 4 that, alongside vaccination campaigns and telemedicine strategies, the province will incorporate machine learning tools for the early detection of dengue hotspots.
The project is led by researcher Ezequiel Álvarez from UNSAM’s International Center for Advanced Studies (ICAS). The Artificial Intelligence system integrates a wide range of variables, including weather conditions, population density, recent reported cases, emergency hotline calls, and hospital visits. B
ased on these inputs, the model infers hidden factors such as the number of infected mosquitoes or the level of neighborhood cleaning practices.
This interdisciplinary initiative brings together biologists, epidemiologists, zoonosis specialists, and government officials. Its main goal is to deliver reliable predictions that allow authorities to take rapid and targeted action, reducing the spread of the virus.
According to Pablo Palmaz, Undersecretary of Institutional Relations at UNSAM, the project could have a short-term impact by enabling timely interventions in vulnerable areas. In the medium term, it is expected to improve the efficiency of public health resources and reduce treatment costs associated with dengue cases.
Álvarez emphasized that Bayesian Artificial Intelligence does not provide exact numbers but instead calculates probability distributions. This allows for estimating, for instance, the likelihood of infected mosquitoes in a given zone or the degree of preventive cleaning in a neighborhood. Authorities can then design more precise and efficient public policies to protect the population.
As dengue cases rise across the region, this initiative positions Argentina as a pioneer in applying Artificial Intelligence to health, combining technological innovation, scientific research, and proactive governance.
