The 2024 presidential election in United States is shaping up to be the closest in decades. Recent polls following the September 10 debate between Trump and Harris indicate that while the vice president holds a slight national lead, the race remains extremely tight, particularly in the Electoral College. 

Polls from CBS News and NBC News released this Sunday show Kamala Harris ahead by just 4 to 5 points nationally, her best performance so far in this election cycle. For comparison, previous Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020 held at least double that advantage at the same stage.

An average of multiple national polls, including ABC News/Ipsos, Fox News, and The New York Times/Siena College, suggests Harris leads by only 3 points. 

This year, neither candidate has ever held a lead of 5 points or more, a rare scenario in modern presidential campaigns. Even Kamala Harris’ strong debate performance only shifted the polls by a few points. The last time a U.S. election remained within such a narrow margin throughout was 1960. 

The Electoral College remains a critical factor. Donald Trump may be in a better position there than in the national vote due to his strong support among white voters without a college degree in key battleground states. According to political analyst Nate Silver, Kamala Harris would need a more than 3-point lead in the popular vote to be considered a clear favorite in the Electoral College. 

The numbers for Harris and Trump

Currently, Harris holds 225 projected electoral votes to Trump’s 219, with seven states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District still undecided. Harris leads slightly in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump edges ahead in Arizona and Georgia.  

Assigning votes based on polls with more than a 1-point lead gives Harris 269 votes and Trump 246. Nevada and North Carolina are extremely close, and potential changes in Nebraska’s electoral allocation could shift the outcome further. 

The final weeks of the campaign could see minor shifts determining the election outcome. A Trump victory in Nevada, for instance, could tie both candidates at 269 votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives. There, Trump would likely have the advantage due to Republican control of more state delegations. 

In short, the 2024 presidential race in United States remains razor-thin. Small changes in voter turnout or shifts in key battleground states could decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris ultimately takes the White House.